Author: Jeremiah

  • Aussie Humour

    These were posted on an Australian Tourism Website and the answers are the actual responses by the website officials, who obviously have a great sense of Aussie humour.

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    Q: Does it ever get windy in Australia ? I have never seen it rain on TV, how do the plants grow? ( UK ).

    A: We import all plants fully grown and then just sit around watching them die.

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    Q: Will I be able to see kangaroos in the street? ( USA )

    A: Depends how much you’ve been drinking.

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    Q: I want to walk from Perth to Sydney – can I follow the railroad tracks? ( Sweden )

    A: Sure, it’s only three thousand miles, take lots of water.

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    Q: Are there any ATMs (cash machines) in Australia ? Can you send me a list of them in Brisbane , Cairns ,Townsville and HerveyBay ? ( UK )

    A: What did your last slave die of?

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    Q: Can you give me some information about hippo racing in Australia ? ( USA )

    A: A-Fri-ca is the big triangle shaped continent south of Europe ..
    Aus-tra-lia is that big island in the middle of the Pacific which does not
    …. Oh forget it. Sure, the hippo racing is every Tuesday night in Kings Cross. Come naked.

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    Q: Which direction is North in Australia ? ( USA )

    A: Face south and then turn 180 degrees. Contact us when you get here and we’ll send the rest of the directions.

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    Q: Can I bring cutlery into Australia ? ( UK )

    A: Why? Just use your fingers like we do.

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    Q: Can you send me the Vienna Boys’ Choir schedule? ( USA )

    A: Aus-tri-a is that quaint little country bordering Ger-man-y, which is ….
    Oh forget it. Sure, the Vienna Boys Choir plays every Tuesday night in Kings Cross, straight after the hippo races. Come naked.

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    Q: Can I wear high heels in Australia ? ( UK )

    A: You are a British politician, right?

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    Q: Are there supermarkets in Sydney and is milk available all year round? ( Germany )

    A: No, we are a peaceful civilization of vegan hunter/gatherers.
    Milk is illegal.

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    Q: Please send a list of all doctors in Australia who can Dispense rattlesnake serum. ( USA )

    A: Rattlesnakes live in A-meri-ca which is where YOU come from.
    All Australian snakes are perfectly harmless, can be safely handled and make good pets.

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    Q: I have a question about a famous animal in Australia , but I forget its name. It’s a kind of bear and lives in trees. ( USA )

    A: It’s called a Drop Bear. They are so called because they drop out of Gum trees and eat the brains of anyone walking underneath them.
    You can scare them off by spraying yourself with human urine before you go out walking.

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    Q: I have developed a new product that is the fountain of youth. Can you tell me where I can sell it in Australia ? ( USA )

    A: Anywhere significant numbers of Americans gather.

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    Q: Can you tell me the regions in Tasmania where the female population is smaller than the male popula tion? ( Italy )

    A: Yes, gay night clubs.

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    Q: Do you celebrate Christmas in Australia ? ( France )

    A: Only at Christmas.

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    Q: I was in Australia in 1969 on R+R, and I want to contact the Girl I dated while I was staying in Kings Cross. Can you help? ( USA )

    A: Yes, and you will still have to pay her by the hour..

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    Q: Will I be able to speak English most places I go? ( USA )

    A: Yes, but you’ll have to learn it first

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    Posted by Jeremiah Josey

  • Quotes from Colin Powell

    Quotes from Colin Powell

    The less you associate with some people, the more your life will improve.

    Any time you tolerate mediocrity in others, it increases your mediocrity.

    An important attribute in successful people is their impatience with negative thinking and negative acting people.

    As you grow, your associates will change.

    Some of your friends will not want you to go on. They will want you to stay where they are.

    Friends that don’t help you climb will want you to crawl.

    Your friends will stretch your vision or choke your dream.

    Those that don’t increase you will eventually decrease you.

    Consider this:

    • Never receive counsel from unproductive people.
    • Never discuss your problems with someone incapable of contributing to the solution, because those who never succeed themselves are always first to tell you how.
    • Not everyone has a right to speak into your life.
    • You are certain to get the worst of the bargain when you exchange ideas with the wrong person.
    • Don’t follow anyone who’s not going anywhere.

    With some people you spend an evening: with others you invest it.

    Be careful where you stop to inquire for directions along the road of life.

    Wise is the person who fortifies his life with the right friendships.

    If you run with wolves, you will learn how to howl. But, if you associate with eagles, you will learn how to soar to great heights.

    A mirror reflects a man’s face, but what he is really like is shown by the kind of friends he chooses.

    The simple but true fact of life is that you become like those with whom you closely associate – for the good and the bad.

    Note: Be not mistaken.
    This is applicable to family as well as friends.
    Yes…do love, appreciate and be thankful for your family, for they will always be your family no matter what.
    Just know that they are human first and though they are family to you, they may be a friend to someone else and will fit somewhere in the criteria above.

    In Prosperity Our Friends Know Us.
    In Adversity We Know Our Friends.

    Never make someone a priority when you are only an option for them.

    If you are going to achieve excellence in big things, you develop the habit in little matters. Excellence is not an exception, it is a prevailing attitude.

    These quotes are from Colin Powell, a recent United States Secretary of State.

    Posted by Jeremiah Josey

  • Leveraging Resources – Saving the Whales, and Dugongs

    Leveraging Resources – Saving the Whales, and Dugongs

    At the same time as I building my butane sphere I was also “Saving the Whales” or rather the dugongs.

    You see, the BP refinery was sitting at the mouth of the Brisbane River on a small peninsular of reclaimed land from the 1960’s. Every 6 to 36 hours a huge crude oil ship would turn up to disgorge about 100,000 barrels of oil so this 80,000 barrel per day refinery could continue to operate.

    Where the river enters the ocean is called the Moreton Bay Marine Park. The park is the only place in the world where significant populations of dugongs (and sea turtles) can still be found close to a major metropolitan centre. A failure and leak of the crude oil delivery pipeline would be devastating.

    And guess what… The crude oil delivery pipeline had cracks in it. Yes, it was going to leak. Soon.

    Bulwer Island Refinery

    Snaking over the Brisbane River and supported on marine pylons about 5 meters above the water, this 20″ pipeline installed in 1965 was designed in the day for ambient temperature crude oils. Light, clean crude oils running at the temperature of the water it was suspended above. The allowance for thermal expansion (steel expands at about 11 x 10^(-6) meters per degree Celsius) was a series of direction changes placed in the pipeline’s length.

    Steel gets longer when it gets hotter. It’s go to go somewhere. It breaks things – and itself if you try and stop it from moving.

    There where 4, simple butt mitred welds holding the pipe together. The quality of the welds where also terrible and not helping matters. The welds where like a seagull had had a dose of bad sardines. I am a welding inspector also.

    There’s nothing wrong with a design like the pipeline had. Until that is, you start to run hotter crude oil through it. By the time I had arrived the refinery in 1994 – my first gig after leaving uni – the refineries’ inspection department was dutifully monitoring and reporting on the growing cracks in these mitred joints. The crude oil the refinery was processing was heavier and waxier and needed to be pumped at temperatures around 60 degrees. That’s enough for a bad skin burn. The pipe was flexing and moving so much it was pushing other service pipes off the shared pipe support.

    And the main pipeline feeding the refinery was cracking.

    I was tasked to fix it.

    Quotes and estimates from “consultants” where coming in above AUD 10, even 25 million to make the repairs. And I did it for less than AUD 250,000/-.

    This is what I did.

    First I put aside the excitement of such a large project – I had only been at the refinery for 6 months, and had already saved several million dollars by the time this task was given to me (that’s another story). Then I walked the pipe. Up and down the 1300 or so meters above the river, breaking every HSE rule there was. And the 1,000 meters or so on dry land. I was looking at the way the pipe was moving. The cracks were clearly visible, made even more so by the white die being used for the mag- particle inspection. I’m also an NDT inspector.

    The next thing I did was create a stress analysis model of the pipeline using AutoPIPE – a cool and pretty straight forward tool. I created the model from scratch using old refinery blue prints and verification on site. The model showed that the cyclic stresses where growing the cracks but they would never go critical and rupture. That was good news. But a leak is a leak and it had to be fixed.

    By the way, if you don’t know much about metals, steel has a “critical crack length” which means that when a crack gets to a certain length in a piece of steel (or any metal or material too), the piling up of lattice dislocations locks up and the metal experiences a brittle, sudden failure. The 1 inch thick steel of the pipeline walls was below the critical crack length at the stresses it was experiencing so the metal would continue to tear and never rupture. It would leak into the river. Not explode into the river.

    The next thing I did was walk the pipeline again and I noticed something interesting. The consultants were telling me that the only thing to do was put an expansion loop out over the water section of the pipeline. New marine pylons would be required and that is where the expense was coming from. I can still see the consultant rubbing his hands together now. [Protip: never ask a hairdresser “do I need a haircut?”]

    But something didn’t feel right. There must be an easier way.

    The Mother of all Expansion Loops

    When looking closer at how the pipe was moving I dived into the pipe design code ASME B31.3** and studied the appendices. And there it was: a beautiful mathematical formulae showing stress as a function of bend pressure AND bend radius. The larger the bend radius the lower the pipe stress. I could dial in a crack free stress by adjusting the bend radius of the pipe.

    In the refinery piping game there are either Long Radius bends or Short Radius bends. This is what ASME B31.3 covers and people rarely go into the detail to use anything else. But there wasn’t enough space for either of the standard bends using the existing marine pylons. They just didn’t work. So, jumping back into my AutoPIPE model I set a temperature limit of 85 degrees (way above any crude oil that the refinery was capable of processing) and worked out what the acceptable radii needed to be for each change in direction for the pipeline. There were 4 changes in direction out over the water that needed special attention.

    Then, armed with my trusty tape measure I went back out onto the pipeline (thanks HSE) and checked if there was enough space for movement at my high temperature design with special long radius bends. There was.

    Eureka!

    The next step was to triple validate my calculations. I re-did them manually. I talked to everyone I could about my design. Even the refinery’s main advisory consultant – a former employee and friend of the refinery manager that found an office outside the fence paid more than one inside. He could find nothing wrong with my approach but he refused to validate my work in writing. I think I know why today. So I finally sent off a CYA letter to ASME in the USA, copy to the refinery manager, explaining that everything I was doing was within code and to come back to me if there was a problem.

    The Main Special Radius Bend

    They never did, and I wasn’t waiting for them to answer. I knew what I was doing.

    The work would be hot, meaning there could be explosions if things went wrong, and that meant lots of precautions. The refinery manager had also made it clear to me: not a single drop of oil could reach the river. Of course. Was I stupid? Dugongs don’t like oily food. They eat sea grass.

    Then in short succession I drew up the designs, had the 4 special bends made in Sydney and shipped the 900 km to the refinery, tendered and awarded the construction work and worked out a plan to undertake the repairs all within a 12 hour working window so there wouldn’t be a refinery shut down or a hold up to the next ship wanting to arrive and deliver oil. I had 8 crews working simultaneously to cold cut, bevel and prepare the pipe and insert the prepared new pipe spools. There would be 20 cold cuts being made at exactly the same time. It was pretty cool to watch, and Hans Walter, owner of the construction company doing the work was amazing. I learnt a lot from Hans and his leading man.

    I had earlier negotiated with the operations team to hold a crude delivery ship over longer than necessary (demurrage is an expensive thing) and pump 100,000 barrels of sea water through the pipeline. I had another project on the go: raising the height of a crude oil storage tank by adding an extra strake so secondary seals could be fitted to reduce VOC releases (Tank 104. That’s another story). The tank was ready for hydro-testing, so I needed to fill it up with a lot of water fast. It was a perfect synergy: clean the pipe, fill the tank. The water would be released back into the river using the refineries biological water treatment facility. Oil is a natural material after all and bugs will eat it if given the right conditions. The ops team where more than happy to oblige. By the way, I held the next ship for a few extra hours too, getting it to fill the pipeline with water so we could hydrotest it – an important final task to ensure there where no leaks.

    Last Landfall Loop

    In preparation for the opening of the pipe I had a survey done of the pipeline level so I could calculate how much water was still laying in the pipe once it was washed out. Then I negotiated with the Port of Brisbane Authority to “borrow” several floating barges and had them fit them with tanks sized according to how much water would come out at each location. Later analysis showed that zero oil remained after the last crude ship had filled my tank with 100,000 barrels of sea water the night before. I couldn’t even make my hands dirty by rubbing the inside of the pipe when it was finally cut open in many places at once.

    It all went off without a hitch. There where three notable events:

    • During the draining of the remaining water (holes where hand drilled at the two of the main sections to be cut out – that’s what my pipeline remaining water level analysis showed) one of the drain hoses fell out from the tank on the floating water barge. I leapt down from the scaffolding and in a single bound – like superman leaping over a tall building – launched over the tank and sliding down the other side, in a single motion grabbing and re-inserting the itinerant hose back into the tank opening. It happened so fast no-one had even moved from their initial shocked position. The water than escaped stayed on the barge.
    • The refinery manager criticised me for leaving “6” flanges over the water”. There are 10 of them. They where needed to pull out the welding balloons used to ensure a gas free safe welding environment. These 6″ nozzles had been attached and hot tapped in preparation for the 12 hour working window, as had most of the work, pipe supports, earth works on land etc. But I wasn’t worried. I had used special spiral wound gaskets with extra sealing capacity far beyond what would have been necessary. And written up a special procedure for closing the nozzles which including torquing the bolts, There’s never been a leak.
    • I lost my temper once when at one of the bends, the smallest one, there was a lone worker who didn’t wait for the draining to be completed, and started his cutting too early. Luckily he was at a high point in the pipeline and luckily I arrived to check in on him as the water started to escape. He stopped cutting and held in the leak with his hand once I stopped yelling at him. It took a while before the water drained away from his location and he could continue his work.

    The whole project took 5 months to complete. It was mostly a coordination exercise and it worked perfectly. It wouldn’t have happened without the full support of all the team players to carry out the strategy once it had been determine as sound and robust.

    Full credit goes to my favourite Russia Alexy Lydov. A veteran at the refinery and in his late 70’s, he was there, direct from Russia, when it was built 1964/1965. I made a point of discussing with him everything I did during my time at the refinery. It was his idea to use welding balloons to enable the special joints to be welded in safely. That made the whole plan workable. His practical and clever Russian style thinking aligned with my get-it-done, can-do approach. He also knew where all the refinery blue prints where, and every design aspect that was relevant to know.

    ** I wanted a more rigorous design code than what you get from using API pipeline codes. It was a refinery after all

    Jeremiah Josey

  • Working with different cultures

    Working in different countries and with people from different cultures is a great way to learn about your beliefs, your shortcomings and especially about your ego.

    It’s like a mind game: working out how to get the best from your team when they come from China, Japan, South Africa, Sweden, England, Scotland, Sri Lanka, India, the Philippines or Malaysia!

    The Japanese style is perhaps the best that I prefer for getting high volume of work done in a very short period of time – they just know how to work together.  The Dutch are similar, but have more connection to the social component of their lives.

    Having done business with South Africans I can appreciate the influences of English, Dutch – and the local environment – to give that particularly effective, selective approach to hard work: choose carefully, and dig in hard once the choice has been made.  This is very similar to Australia in fact, and with each having similar cultural and environmental heritage it explains a lot: see if you can spot the differences between the Springboks supporters and the Wallabies…

    When I came across the Ingelhart Values Map it helped a lot in my thoughts in this area: collaboration between cultures.  The map has been created by the World Values Survey.

    Read more about the World Value Survey and you’ll learn that it is estimated that the map covers perhaps 70% of influences of a culture.  The map looks at Traditional (or religious) values versus secular rational values, together with survival and self expression desires of a culture.

    For example, take the Indian culture: over 1 billion people.  They have a very strong follower trait.  From the map India is more traditionalist and survival focused.  This is reflected in higher birth rates, and can be seen in all the great Indian cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata where the infrastructure is pretty much as left in place by the British in 1948, just now it is in much poorer condition.

    When comparing India with Australia, the similarity in strength placed on traditional values would support the notion of high popularity in each country for the very traditional game of cricket?

    ;o)

    Profile of Jeremiah Josey

    Blog of Jeremiah Josey

  • New Oil and Old Hopes – The Bakken Formation

    I didn’t know about this one: The Bakken Formation in central USA.

    A recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report from April 10, 2008 documents the oil reserve in these rocks. Somewhere around 200 billion barrels that lie conveniently in the middle of the USA.

    The USGS announced that there is about 25 times more oil to recover than previously thought. 25 times? That’s a big difference.

    To put this quantity of oil into perspective, Saudi Arabia – the largest remaining reserves in the world – has about 200 billion barrels left, and Kuwait – where I am now – has about 50 billion barrels of oil left to go. [That’s about 70 years at current production rates ;o) ]

    The Bakken however only has about 1%, or 2 billion barrels that is recoverable using current technologies.

    Why so low?

    The difference is that because of the poor flow charateritsics of oil in the shale formation (low porosity and low permeability). The Bakken oil doesn’t like to come out.

    Still 2 billion barrels of oil is enough to drive the present US demand for about 1,000 days, or 2.7 years (at a consumption rate of roughly 20 million barrels per day).

    Hardly seems worth it does it?

    Then again, if you assume an oil price of USD 50 per barrel, 200 billion barrels is worth about 1 trillion USD dollars… Still a lot of bikkies, and hey! that’s similar to the amount of money recently used by the US government to bail out a few troubled banking and automotive companies.

    So what if more could be extracted, using different techniques? You bet there are a lot of interested people looking at it right now.

    By the by, I was close to a shale oil project in Queensland, Australia: the Stuart Shale Oil Project for Southern Pacific Petroleum (SPP were my clients when I was running a division of WorleyParsons).

    These shale oil reserves – the Stuart and Rundel fields, a few billion barrels each I recall – are actually Kerogen: like the early stages of oil. It hasn’t had enough time, heat or pressure to become turn into liquid form. It’s hard crumbly black stuff. No oil at all!

    That’s where man comes in: a retort is used to pyrolyze the oil shale turning it into a liquid form that can be refined using conventional oil refining processes.

    Sounds messy doesn’t it.

    It is.

    And expensive.

    CO2 emissions?? Wow! Don’t even go there.

    I like the Swedish approach to oil: get off it all together! (They intend to by 2020).

    Jeremiah Josey

    Blog of Jeremiah Josey

  • What Goes Around…

    In a small town in the United States, the place looks almost totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

    Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the town’s only hotel, lays a 100 dollar bill on the reception counter as a deposit, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one.

    The hotel proprietor takes the 100 dollar bill and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.

    The butcher takes the 100 dollar bill, and runs to pay his debt to the pig farmer.

    The pig farmer runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel.

    The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 dollar bill and runs to pay his debt to the town’s prostitute that, in these hard times, gave her “services” on credit.

    The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Dollar Bill to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.

    The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 dollar bill back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.

    At that moment, the tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes back his 100 dollar bill, saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.

    No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with a lot of optimism………

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how most of the western nations (in particular the United States, Canadian and Australian Governments) are doing business today.

    Jeremiah Josey

  • How to Become Insanely Rich

    How to Become Insanely Rich

    It has been more than 12 years since I built one of my first major capital projects. I was 24 at the time. I hunkered down to do everything that needed to be done to build a major piece of critical infrastructure in a multi-billion dollar refining operation. And I did it all within 12 months.

    My project was only AUD 2 million, but it was fun. It was 12 months from literally cornering the lead process engineer in his office to size the capacity required (16 meters in diameter) [Pro tip: emails don’t work], specialised steel selection and shell plate manufacture, a QRA with Det Norske Veritas of Norway, Hazops, contractor selection – from the best in the world and a specialised ultra low NPSH vertical multi stage high pressure transfer pump. It was the largest and most sophisticated butane storage facility of it’s type in the Southern Hemisphere.

    You know what my biggest lesson was? The payback. During the summer time, this storage sphere could store 1000 tonnes of “waste” butane coming from the main refinery process over summer. It would be burnt in a huge flare stake previously. The butane could then be injected into the gasoline fuel mix during winter when the Reid Vapour pressure was lower. The payback for this AUD 2,000,000 investment: 3 months. Yes, only three. I did the calculation several times to validate it. Just to check I was seeing it right. Over the past decade this assembly of concrete and steel has paid back something like AUD 100 million. With minimal costs. Now that’s an investment.

    There’s me. The fireproofing is being applied to the legs behind me. You can see where it is here.

    Jeremiah Josey

  • The End of Royal Dutch Shell?

    Today I read of the demise of Royal Dutch Shell – that huge unconscious behemoth employing 104,000 people around the world with 22B profits and revenues greater than USD300B per year.

    Well it wasn’t the specifically the demise, but the decision – that defining moment  that will lead to Shell’s demise – that I read about.

    The article was in Professional Engineering, 25th March 2009, Page 4:  Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it will no longer invest in renewable energy sources (wind, solar and hydropower). Whilst it will still remain a “committed member” of the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI)*, Royal Dutch Shell will invest in biofuels and carbon capture.

    Why do I say that this is the beginning of the end for Royal Dutch Shell?  Isn’t the world looking at carbon capture?  Isn’t “clean coal” the new buzz word?  Isn’t corn ethanol our salvation?

    No they are not.

    Carbon capture simply raises the costs of using existing fossil fuels, and defers the problem of carbon dioxide disposal to future generations.

    Biofuels are not only expensive and marginally carbon neutral, they raise the cost of food for people, and increase the rate of degradation of the worlds remaining, dwindling farming lands.

    Free, abundant energy from the Sun is the answer – captured by photovoltaics, wind power and hydro.

    Remember, that wind is also created because of the Sun: hot air rises, and cool air rushes in to fill the gap: wind power is solar energy one step removed. Hydro: capturing the energy of falling water from rain caused by heating of the earth by the Sun, solar energy two steps removed.

    Shell is missing an important factor: the rapidly reducing cost of producing electricity from solar panels.  

    By 2015 using the Sun to directly produce electricity from photovoltaics will be an economic reality for every one. The cost to produce electricity is presently around $0.20 per kWhr and with reducing manufacturing costs this will reach $0.10 per kWhr by 2015 – directly competitive with power from coal, with no government subsidies or incentives in sight!

    This is supported by research from the RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute). [Here’s Amory Lovins, director of the RMI, speaking about it: Amory Lovins on winning the oil endgame]

    First Solar: the worlds largest billion dollar manufacturer of solar cells is rapidly approaching 1 GigaWatt in annual production capacity. They are already manufacturing at $0.93 per Watt – this is as of the 30th of April 2009.

    So why has Shell taken this monumental decision – not to invest in wind and solar – only a handful of years from the tipping point?

    A few reasons:

    Shell is a fossil fuel company making business by selling the stored energy of the sun for over 100 years. The leadership, the management, and hence the culture of Shell is fossil fuels. This inertia is difficult to refocus.

    Fossil fuels are also still highly profitable: production costs are still less than $10 per barrel in most parts of the world (and here in the middle east, it’s less than 2), so there’s a heck of a lot of profit still to be made. And profit, well that will drive us for a long time to come.

    The worlds present infrastructure, the system, is built on a fossil fuel economy. As a people we fear change, and strive to maintain a constant regular environment around us.  This drives short term thinking and puts off long term decision making.

    Perhaps Shell believe they can delay the tipping point?

    Can they can buy up – and lock up – the new technologies. Yes, I suppose they could, in the short term. What lengths would you go to to protect a $300B business? You certainly have a lot of money to support what ever strategy you wanted!

    For example, technology developed by Stanford R. Ovshinsky, leader in thin film photovoltaic and Li-Ion battery technology – was bought and locked up by Exxon Mobile in the early 2000’s.  (Watch “Who Killed the Electric Car” for this reference). What has happened since? Newer, better technologies, made the purchase by Exxon redundant. It slowed the shift but didn’t stop it.

    So what?  So solar panels can make cheap electicity?  Who cares? Well everyone will.  When the cost of placing solar panels on the home roof is less than the annual fuel bill for the home car, then most people will want to switch to an electric car and charge it with the power collected from those solar panels (Electric car technology is more than suitable right now – see Tesla Motors, backed by one of the founders of Google, or the stylish two seater vehicle from Aptera Motors).

    A shift will occur.

    Four  key things will happen:
    1) Demand for electric cars will surge
    2) Demand for oil will drop
    3) Power generation will become decentralised, as consumers control the generation of their own electricity
    4) Demand for coal will drop

    The age of fossil fuels will be over.

    And Shell, by the looks of their current policy will be over with it.

    How long will the shift take? Perhaps 10 to 20 years after the tipping point is reached. Perhaps less. The first world war (1914 – 1918) was a war waged on crude oil.  The diesel engine was developed a mere 25 years earlier in the 1890’s. Trucks, tanks, battlecruisers and even cars and planes using similar technology where all driven by refined crude oil was used for the first time on a huge scale during this war.  It established the fossil fuel economy.

    So the time frame for the next shift will be about the same, perhaps less because sharing the information can now happen at the speed of the internet.

    What a time to be alive!

    Jeremiah Josey

    * By the way, Royal Dutch Shell has committed a paltry 50M GBP to the ETI over 10 years. The company profit presently exceeds 60M GBP per day.

  • Working smarter and not harder

    When I was 13 years old, I was living with my family on a farm in far western NSW. This was “Outback Australia”.

    A new local TV tower had been installed about 5 km away and so we could now watch Australia’s equivalent to the BBC without watching it through a blue plastic screen that was needed to cut back the snow. That also meant that the 100′ high tower above the farm’s homestead holding up our TV antenna was no longer needed.

    The bigger boys – my mums’ brothers and her dad, Pop – took down the mast and it’s guy wires over the course of a few days and stored away the steel pipe. These where used used in building new stock yards and fences.

    But they left the last 3 feet of pipe and the large buried concrete base the pipe was embedded in. And it was in an awkward, obvious location.

    One day I decided to take it out. 🙂

    From early morning until well into the afternoon I toiled, using crow bar, breaking bar, shovels (post hole and flat) and lots of water to loosen and remove the earth from around the concrete plinth.

    The task seemed beyond me. My hands were raw with blisters – they had formed and broken many hours previously. But I had to rest – beside, Gran had arrived with lunch! I sat down on the grass and looked at the mammoth mass of concrete and pondered.

    What is going on? Am I doing this the right way? This how you always take out something like this: you dig and dig until it falls over. But it doesn’t seem right. Besides it’s taking too long!

    The process was working – hitting it on the side I could see that it was moving every so slightly. This was going to take days!

    Then I realised: I don’t want to get this thing across, I want to get it up and then out.

    What I need is to LIFT it….

    An idea formed.

    I went out the back to the large workshop we had and looked around.

    There was always lots of stuff to choose from. There always is on the farm.

    I found what I was after: two very sturdy short pieces of I beam – each piece weighing much more than me! I struggled, shoved, dragged and coerced each steel section to either side of the massive hole I had dug – concrete massif sitting smugly in the centre. Yes it was smiling at me.

    I then carried across a long length of 4″ x 4″ SHS, and placed a 10 tonne hydraulic jacks on top in the middle of the SHS. The jack was one of those big ones you can use on a truck. Not a car one.

    Getting the picture?

    I then found some heavy duty steel chain and connected the chain to the pipe protruding out of the concrete.

    Wrapping the chain over the lifting piston of the jack and tying it off on itself, I was ready.

    I inserted the lifting lever into the jack, and with just two fingers I watched this massive concrete rise up out of the water and mud. I remember how funny it felt as I consciously exerted as little  effort as I could.

    Magic.

    In a few short moments it was done.

    I adjusted the chain once or twice, but once the connection with the ground was broken the concrete block was mine!

    I tied the mass of concrete to a car and dragged it off into the scrub behind some gum trees. It’s still there to this day.

    The lesson I have remembered every since: work smarter not harder.

    Even today when I’m head down and focused on a problem, that feeling of “hang on, there’s an easier way” starts knocking and pretty soon, I’ll stop, reassess and find myself an alternative – my present day “jack and beam” solution.

    There you have it. Work smarter, not harder.

    Jeremiah Josey

    PS, here’s a Google Maps link that will take you straight to the homestead!
    Rostella Homestead

  • Avoid Working with an A-H!

    This is a great blog I came across recently by Guy Kiyosaki. I’ve posted a little bit of it below. You can find the entire post here:

    …Mean-spirited morons are still running much of the workplace, and it’s time to take a stand. Most nastiness is directed by superiors to subordinates; so before taking a job, do your homework and screen them out in advance. (After all, avoidance is the easier than curing.)

    To do this, I propose that you check your prospective boss’s references just like she’s checking out yours. I’m not suggesting that you ask your prospective boss for a list of references (you can try, but it may mean you don’t get the job).

    Instead, do a LinkedIn reference check. First, look her up to determine if you have any common connections. If so, find out more from people you trust. Second, use the LinkedIn reference check tool to find people who overlapped with her in the past…

    Read the whole post here: Guy’s No Asshole blog post.

    Linkedin.com in a great tool for business. You can see my profile by clicking here: My Profile

    Jeremiah Josey

Jeremiah Josey