[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvTFKpIaQhM]
Author: Jeremiah
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More on the New World Order
I’ve been following George Soro‘s thoughts for a while and in the book I’m reading now, “The Ascent of Money”, Niall gives him a lot of air time. So when George presented a week long lecture series at the Central European University I just couldn’t resist. And in my usual explanative way: “brilliant“!
His theory of reflexivity is closely aligned with the great thinking that underpins a lot of the wonderful stuff that is going on now (Avatar is perhaps the best example I have experienced). What the Bleep? Heard of it. Same stuff.
Here’s the blurb on the FT web site link below:
George Soros unveils his latest thinking on economics and politics during a lecture series hosted by the Central European University (CEU) from Oct 26-30, 2009. These lectures are the culmination of a lifetime of practical and philosophical reflection. Mr Soros discusses his general theory of reflexivity and its application to financial markets, providing insights into the recent financial crisis. The third and fourth lectures examine the concept of open society, which has guided Mr Soros’s global philanthropy, as well as the potential for conflict between capitalism and open society. The closing lecture focuses on the way ahead, closely examining the increasingly important economic and political role that China will play in the future.
George Soros Lectures 26 October 2009 to 30 October 2009
Excellent stuff. Dry, but very good. Imagine, almost 80 years of experience from one heck of a performer (he was born in 1930). He’s worked out the rules of the game and plays it very well.
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The New World Order
Catchy title? It’s sure to attract attention.
I’m just about finished a great book called the “Assent of Money” by Niall Ferguson. An excellent read if you want to understand how the financial system works – including your credit card, your home mortgage and your pension – if you have one.
It’s a history of money, how it works, what it means and really what it is! He paints a very straight forward explanation for why the current shifting in economic power is from the west (in particular the USA) to the East (in particular China).
He also identifies key fractures in the current financial system (particularly credit default swaps – a notional USD 62 trillion worth presently in the market – that’s 78 times the size of the TARP bail out package released last year by the Obama government, and about the same as the entire World’s production, our GDP)
The origins of the financial system, in one place. No such book exists previously to this book.
4,000 years of the What and Why and When and How and Where and Who on money.
Don’t miss it!
Watch the video (where did they get that music?!! I remember that music from the games on the Commodore 64 from the early 80’s!!)
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cIeQp2zzhY]
Here’s more of Niall speaking on the net: Niall Videos
Update: The Bitcoin Standard is the next one to read to bring you up to date with Money in today’s world.
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Tips from a Leader – Samir Brikho
Samir puts out a weekly email to staff working at Amec – around 20,000 people work for this company.
He has 6 good pointers for success:
We all learn quickly that we each have different talents and strengths and need to work hard to overcome our weaknesses. Leadership does not always come as a natural ability to all of us and we must seek out mentors to help us create opportunities to fine tune our skills. Throughout my career I have learnt those elements that make a good leader and create success. Like a chemical reaction – if you know what elements you should mix and when different combinations are needed – success is inevitable. Through my experience, I strongly believe that the foundations of leadership are as follows:
Have a vision of success – without this you will lose your way and your direction. Without aspiring to success, there is no point in having a vision – we all want to be successful at what we aim for.
Know your purpose – define why it is that you are putting the effort in. In my role I continually ask – how are we creating jobs? Creating value to our customers? Improving returns to stakeholders? And most importantly are we doing this in a sustainable and meaningful way?
Build the best teams – your team is a reflection of your leadership. It cannot be taken for granted – you need to develop them, trust them and empower them. The more we practise these leadership qualities; which sound easy but take a lot of commitment and determination; the more we will develop the most effective teams in the world.
Develop a clear strategy – you need a roadmap that paves the way for you to achieve your vision. It is crucial that this is clear, action driven and honest. You need to embed milestones and measurement throughout and align your team to the strategy.
Stay focused – do not get distracted with non -priority issues. Plan your short-term, mid-term and long- term objectives. Be honest with yourself and stay committed to what you need to achieve today; tomorrow; in the week; in the quarter; and the year to achieve your vision and strategy.
Have fun – you need to feel excited and inspired every day. This involves recognising when you and your teams are fatigued, when it is time to rest and rotate your people.
This is a “top down” approach, not truly encompassing of a participation management style, however I like the concepts because they can be implemented quite easily across an participative organisation.
Like I telling people working with me (and often looking to me for an answer!), 10 brains working on a problem is much better than 1!
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The New Frontier: Adults in the Workplace
I often think about what is coming next, with instant world wide communication, and access to information from anyone, any time, any way. Personal choice and satisfaction is now more than ever the key question for everyone in all countries, people are seeking – and obtaining – answers from all around the globe.
I think what is next is that marvellous final bastion of time consumption for the majority of us on this little blue planet: employment – trading our time for money.
This is being questioned more than ever – just talk to your parents about getting a “safe secure job”. Perhaps we feel that being gainfully employed means more than money, like “something to do with our time”, but recent studies show that employee disengagement is the epidemic of the 21st century: most employees have switched off. We are running in neutral; idling; bored; tuned out; not interested; keen to move on. The UK has one of the lowest levels of employee interest.
That’s most of the work force not happy to be there / here / anywhere!!
No viral influenza outbreak has nothing on the misery and suffering caused by that amount of chronic disengagement.
That’s why I’m excited. With all this untapped human potential, just sitting in idle, what does it take to re-engage, re-motivate and obtain excellence from them? That’s exciting: that potential. I know the answer and it’s straight forward: once you get your ego under control, let go of the reins, the need to control, and let your employees step up.
A friend of mine was doing their MBA in Kuwait and I was helping them prepare for an exam and a group assignment on leadership and organisational management. Great stuff. I was enthralled by a case study about BMW under our study. It clearly identified the participative management work environment that clearly explained why BMW is so successful right now, whilst other car manufactures are faltering: BMW had engaged 12,000 new people since 2000, whilst GM and Ford have sacked similar numbers. BMW does not have workers and managers, they have associates and leaders, and there’s more to it. It’s not what they are doing that is important. It’s why and how. And it’s all about engagement. (This web page is not the case study, but alludes to BMW’s practices a little).
I explain it to my colleagues and my teams like this: the traditional method of business is like a school class room. [Really it is like the military model, as is school, but relatively few of us have military experience, but most of us have been in school. ]
In a typical school there is a teacher and there are the students. The students are treated as individuals and instructed what to do by one person: classical management style theory. The teacher dictates the rules and the students work to their own limits – in solitude – to reach their own level of achievement: the grades. That’s it. Students can’t wait to leave. The teacher struggles to inspire and motivate. There’s very little group work, in fact working in a team can lead to expulsion – it has a special term: “cheating”.
Consider what happens when the teacher leaves the room? What happens? We all know: we’ve all been there before. We bumff off, goof off, focus on anything and everything but the subject matter.
Something else very interesting is happening and that is the essence of participative management: grouping together into collectives to discuss stuff, all kinds of stuff. And what is discussed is what is interesting to each collective.
Imagine if those little groups could be harnessed to drive outcomes? Self driven, enthusiastic, motivated…
That’s exactly what companies like BMW and Google have done. They have worked it out. They work as dynamic, organic groups, openly and in plain sight.
It’s so much fun to do to as well! People come alive in my groups when I employ the strategies and rules to engage and motivate a team: to form a participative group. Quiet people begin to contribute. Bullies and those who can’t manage their egos become quiet, and they either get with it or leave the group. It’s magic to watch it working. Just watching the outcomes and achievements of a self motivated, self actualized group of people is wonderful.
Have a look at this very good web site: WorldBlu.com. Traci Fenton, the founder, has decided to recognize “democratic” work places and on her web site there are 40 companies that qualify for her 10 point checklist as a democratic company for 2009.
Here are her 10 points:
The WorldBlu 10 Principles of Organizational Democracy™
1. Reflection + Evaluation
Democratic organizations are committed to continuous feedback and development and are willing to learn from the past and apply lessons to improve the future.
2. Purpose and Vision
A democratic organization is clear about why it exists (its purpose) and where it is headed and what it hopes to achieve (its vision). These act as its true North, offering guidance and discipline to the organization’s direction.
3. Transparency
Say goodbye to the “secret society” mentality. Democratic organizations are transparent and open with employees about the financial health, strategy, and agenda of the organization.
4. Dialog + Listening
Instead of the top-down monologue or dysfunctional silence that characterizes most workplaces, democratic organizations are committed to having conversations that bring out new levels of meaning and connection.
5. Fairness + Dignity
Democratic organizations are committed to fairness and dignity, not treating some people like “somebodies” and other people like “nobodies.”
6. Accountability
Democratic organizations point fingers, not in a blaming way but in a liberating way. They are crystal clear about who is accountable to whom and for what.
7. Individual + Collective
In democratic organizations, the individual is just as important as the whole, meaning employees are valued for their individual contribution as well as for what they do to help achieve the collective goals of the organization.
8. Choice
Democratic organizations thrive on giving employees meaningful choices.
9. Integrity
Integrity is the name of the game, and democratic companies have a lot of it. They understand that freedom takes discipline and also doing what is morally and ethically right.
10. Decentralization
Democratic organizations make sure power is appropriately shared and distributed among people throughout the organization.
Apply these principles and just watch what happens to your organisation.
I believe that the essence of a successful democratic process, is captured by Malcolm Gladwell in his book Tipping Point from 2000. That is: “Peer pressure is much more powerful than the concept of a Boss. Many, many times more powerful”. (You’ll find this little gem buried on page 186).
Think about the teacher/student concept. How much power does the teacher have? Very little really. It depends on their character, but it is a doomed, decaying system. The stronger and more controlling the teacher is with the class, the more the class will work against the teacher when the teacher is absent: it’s a system bound to fail. On the other hand, peer pressure does nothing but enhance the values and achievements of the group – the only thing to do is guide the group in the desired direction.
But this is not new is it??
Of course not.
Here are some very interesting events of world note that were affected to some degree by the amount of engagement of the participants:
- The Dutch East India Company founded in 1602 experienced stable consistent share price growth for nearly 200 years, paying an average annual dividend of 18%,
- British South Sea Bubble and crash of the early 1700’s,
- French Mississippi Company another early 1700’s crash,
- Erlanger Cotton-backed bonds of the US Civil war great in theory but doomed the entire war effort.
And to bring it back to the future: GE/Durham. One engine per day, total control by the employees: perfect balance of people and workplace harmony.
So what does all this mean? We’ll it means that a company can limp along on a net profit margin of 0% to 5% using traditional management processes (stressed out managers and tuned out employees) or a company can achieve 20 to 30% returns in an environment with very little turnover, where everyone wants to be there.
The new frontier is Workplace Democracy.
I’m going to end with two beautiful quotes from Sir Richard Branson he made on 13th October 2007 when being interviewed on TED. The video is called “Life at 30,000 Feet“. Richard left school when he was 15. He was told by his headmaster that he will either be a roaring success or he would go to prision: he’s done both.
“A company is all about finding the right people, inspiring those people and drawing out the best in people.” @ 1 minute, 45 seconds
“I don’t actually think that the stereotype of a business person treading all over people to get to the top generally speaking works. If you treat people well, people will come back and come back for more. All you have in life is your reputation. It’s a very small world. I actually think that best way of becoming a successful business leader is by dealing with people fairly and well, and I like to think that’s how we run Virgin.” @ 21 minutes, 20 seconds
Be well.
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Know your Army…
Know your army before declaring War – Jamal Al Ajmi, Kuwait, 2009
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Shift Happens
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY]
Created by Karl Fisch in 2006 -
Productivity – How to Get the Most from Your Team: Have a Collaborative Work Culture
Do you operate a fear based work culture or a collaborative work culture?
It’s easy to tell: just take a break, have a holiday. Come back to your work place and if it based on fear you will find work has slowed to a standstill.
A collaborative work culture and you’ll wonder why came back – performance may have actually improved!
Now we humans are a learning animal – we learn from each other – for good or for bad. Having the experience I have in the engineering business (the consultancy or working for hours business – see my presentation on how to measure business performance here) I have seen the effect of focus on maximising revenue alone: training falls by the way side. Or if it does occur, it is focused on technical, task related skills. That leaves us in the least desirable learning environment: informally from each other!! In an environment like this leadership and managerial skills are taken for granted and left to “brew” in the culture of the company. Managers modeled their styles on the only thing they have – their own managers. And if their own managers were promoted engineers – technically orientated, not people oriented – well that “brew” will be interesting indeed.
What’s new? Most companies actually run like this: focusing on short term immediate results, deferring training and improvement to a another day, “when things get quiet”. I suppose the confusing element with selling hours for a business is that you are actually trying to buy and sell the same “thing” you need to manage: people.
Confused… How is this related to the culture?
Well consider where fear usually comes from? It’s a fear of something? In business, as an employee, it is a fear of what? Loosing that job of course, and that comes if the boss perceives you as not performing (whether you are or not is a different matter). And there will be fear of being found out that you really don’t know what you are doing. Because for a technically trained person to have the wrong answer, is to be a failure. It’s black or white, pass or fail.
From what I have just described – a work team where there’s no formal training in how to lead, how to manage, even how to communicate, the fall back position is to manipulate people like inanimate objects – you can expect that fear will be a natural outcome. Getting promoted into a position you’ve never been trained you will naturally be fearful. And worse, being fearful of anyone finding out that you don’t know.
By the way, don’t bother hiding – it’s always obvious to your team and your managers if you are struggling. It’s how you deal with that struggle that your managers are interested in. With your team, lie to them and you loose their respect. Loose their respect and you loose your team.
That’s why I enjoy collaborative cultures the most: continual feedback, formal, informal, positive, negative, eliminates the fear.
A culture where the leader recognises that a shortfall in team member is a shortfall in their ability to lead. A culture where the leader knows that to improve their team they must first improve themselves.
But it does take courage.
Courage is not having no fear – that is fool hardy. Courage is acting despite your fear.
This is the basis behind the collaborative work culture instilled by Ricardo Semler.
Here’s a great lecture by Ricardo at MIT. He says something very fundamental about the predominant way of working in the 21st century: collaboration.
A meritocracy is another word for it.
by Jeremiah Josey, August 2009
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An Inconvenient Truth – 3 and a bit Years On (s)
I was recently watching “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore again.
Again I was reminded of a large amount of doubt and misinformation wandering about the world on the topic of global warming. Like a frightened rabbit, the lights of the oncoming truck have frozen the collective we to the armchairs and to inactivity.
Al Gore put it very well: out of a study of 928 scientific journals over a 10 year period all 100% documents concurred that man was causing climate change, principally from CO2 emissions.
In the face of this evidence, the objective of a small, well-funded group was to “Reposition Global Warming As Theory rather than Fact” (from a leaked internal document).
Are they succeeding? Simply, Yes.
A public survey of popularist non-scientific articles (636 over 14 years) showed that a massive 53% throw doubt on whether global warming is an issue or not.
Has anything changed in the 3 or so years since this film?
It appears not.
I wondered what was happening with the melt rates on Greenland in recent years, since the film. A quick search of the web revealed that the highest rate ever recorded was in 2007.
Then I came across this article dated 27th May 2009. Here’s an excerpt: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/sealevel.jsp
…To assess the impact of Greenland ice melt on ocean circulation, Hu and his coauthors used the Community Climate System Model, an NCAR-based computer model that simulates global climate.
They considered three scenarios: the melt rate continuing to increase by 7 percent per year, as has been the case in recent years, or the melt rate slowing down to an increase of either 1 or 3 percent per year.
If Greenland’s melt rate slows down to a 3 percent annual increase, the study team’s computer simulations indicate that the runoff from its ice sheet could alter ocean circulation in a way that would direct about a foot of water toward the northeast coast of North America by 2100.
This would be on top of the average global sea level rise expected as a result of global warming. Although the study team did not try to estimate that mean global sea level rise, their simulations indicated that melt from Greenland alone under the 3 percent scenario could raise worldwide sea levels by an average of 21 inches (54 cm).
If the annual increase in the melt rate dropped to 1 percent, the runoff would not raise northeastern sea levels by more than the 8 inches (20 cm) found in the earlier study in Nature Geoscience.
But if the melt rate continued at its present 7 percent increase per year through 2050 and then leveled off, the study suggests that the northeast coast could see as much as 20 inches (50 cm) of sea level rise above a global average that could be several feet. However, Hu cautioned that other modeling studies have indicated that the 7 percent scenario is unlikely.
In addition to sea level rise, Hu and his co-authors found that if the Greenland melt rate were to defy expectations and continue its 7 percent increase, this would drain enough fresh water into the North Atlantic to weaken the oceanic circulation that pumps warm water to the Arctic. Ironically, this weakening of the meridional overturning circulation would help the Arctic avoid some of the impacts of global warming and lead to at least the temporary recovery of Arctic sea ice by the end of the century.
This is a confusing article. It starts with an ice melt rate of 7% per year – a measured rate, but shifts to discuss melt rates of 3 and 1% which are assumed and in the future (2050 and 2100). Why is this? Confused? Wondering what the point is? 7%, 3% 1%, levelling off? Meridional shifts??
Reference to the recent melt increase rate of 7% per year is obfuscated in the article. The key observation is: melt rates in Greenland have been increasing at 7% per year. Why focus on less alarmist scenarios of 3% and 1%?? Less alarming I assume!
The assumption is that by 2050 the melt rate “levels out”.
This doesn’t make sense. The earth is warming? Why would melting ice slow down? Wouldn’t it actually get faster?? Aren’t CO2 levels at all-time high?? They aren’t decreasing and there is no expectation of them to reduce to below pre-1900 levels for many 100’s of years. So why would the melt rate reduce from 7%? One would expect it to increase!!
Let’s look at some facts a little more clearly.
In 2006 the estimated ice melt rate was 239 cubic kilometres per year.
In 2007 the ice melt rate was 592 cubic kilometres per year.
There are 2.85 million cubic kilometres of ice in total in Greenland
The 7% increase per year was determined by looking at the change in earths gravity.
With an opening comment like this one: “In the past, the Greenland ice sheet has grown when its surroundings cooled, shrunk when its surroundings warmed and even disappeared completely when the temperatures became warm enough.” ; it kind of says, “ho-hum, what’s the problem. This stuff happens all the time”.
Well, there’s no problem really. Just a few extra meters of sea level, no freshwater in central Asia and extreme arid conditions in what are presently bread bowls of the world. Not much when you look at after all.
This does happen, but the natural cycles are every 10,000 years or so. Plants and animals (including us) can adapt over that time frame. But over a decade? They – and we – cannot.
Al Gore portrayed the equivalence of humans very well with the image of the frog in the warming water…
Unfortunately, I don’t expect any helping hand to come from the sky to pull us from the rising, warming waters. We’ll just have our equivalent “boiling alive”, well most of the human race will anyway.
Major climate change is here to stay. CO2 levels, like that of CFCs, are at highest levels ever recorded or measured in the last 650,000 years.
Melt rates are measured to be increasing at 7% per year.
And with the Antarctic showing evidence of beginning the melting process as well.
Buy a boat!
On a less alarmist note, I created my own “climate change model” to predict sea levels dependent solely on melt rates from Greenland. I assumed all ice cap meltwater goes into the sea, and I assumed no makeup from snow.
Being an exponential relationship, nothing really happens until towards the end, which is kind of the scary thought – lots of nothing for many years, and then relatively quickly meters of water in only a handful of years. In the early years, it’s all nice and small incremental change, but as rates increase faster and faster the power of compounding kicks in. In less than 39 years, sea levels rise by 7.2 meters.
I’ve ignored the very high increase in melt rates from 2006 (195 cubic km per year) to 2007 (592 cubic km per year). (That’s a 200% increase, not 7%).
If one uses that exponential relationship, then Greenland ice cap and the sea levels will rise by 7.2 meters by 2048 – only handful of years away really. I’ll be keeping an eye on what the melt rates are doing in Greenland!
Here are the results:
Assumptions 2,850,000 Current Total Greenland Ice Mass (cubic kilometres) 195 2006 melt rate (cubic kilometres per year) 7.2 meters of sea-level rise if entire Greenland ice mass melted 0.50 2006 Sea level rise per year from current Greenland Melt (mm) 7.0% Increase in annual melt rate 5.0% Acceleration of Increase of melt rate Year Melt Rate Increase Melt Rate Year Start Melt Rate Year-End Total Ice Mass Each Year Annual Sea Level Rise (mm) Total Sea Level Rise (cm) 2006 7.00% 195 209 2,850,000 0.51 0.05 2007 7.35% 209 224 2,849,784 0.55 0.11 2008 7.72% 224 241 2,849,551 0.59 0.16 2009 8.10% 241 261 2,849,300 0.63 0.23 2010 8.51% 261 283 2,849,028 0.69 0.30 2011 8.93% 283 308 2,848,732 0.75 0.37 2012 9.38% 308 337 2,848,410 0.82 0.45 2013 9.85% 337 370 2,848,056 0.89 0.54 2014 10.34% 370 409 2,847,666 0.98 0.64 2015 10.86% 409 453 2,847,235 1.09 0.75 2030 22.58% 3,585 4,394 2,824,056 10.08 6.61 2035 28.81% 10,912 14,056 2,783,133 31.54 16.94 2040 36.77% 43,438 59,412 2,628,357 129.92 56.05 2041 38.61% 59,412 82,352 2,557,475 179.07 73.95 2042 40.54% 82,352 115,740 2,458,429 250.22 98.97 2043 42.57% 115,740 165,010 2,318,054 354.63 134.44 2044 44.70% 165,010 238,767 2,116,166 510.03 185.44 2045 46.93% 238,767 350,828 1,821,368 744.75 259.92 2046 49.28% 350,828 523,715 1,384,097 1104.69 370.38 2047 51.74% 523,715 794,706 724,886 1665.37 536.92 2048 ALL ICE GONE FROM GREENLAND = SEA LEVEL RISE 7.2 METERS It all happens in the last few years – as the last of the ice slips off the land, and sea levels rise exponentially.
This does not consider the West Antarctic ice sheet (another 7 meters of water if it melts).
I’ve seen a few less informed – or rather paid well by others – parade the Global Cooling myth, but I think for little more than ego aggrandisement and their hip pocket. I like this succinct summary:
“This hypothesis never had significant scientific support, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling.
Then have a look at the most vocal proponent Don Easterbrook
Just follow the money.
Hey, I’m going to grab a nice book or three, find a nice place and watch what happens over the next 10 years.
The last 10 have been a ripper for change across the planet. The next 10 will be a rip-snorter!!
Depending on the source, Albert Einstein referred to compound interest as the eighth wonder of the world, the human race’s greatest invention, or the most powerful force of the universe.
The sad fact is that for the next 30 years or so, the “measured” rate of increase will be small. It is only the last 5 years where the water level rises dramatically. Boiling the frog? Absolutely.
That’s what this is all about.
There are solutions but that’s not what this blog was about, now was it?
From National Geographic
Another update from NASA – warm sea storms, 20 November 2016: NASA Report
Article from BBC on what’s happening in Greenland in 2019:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49483580
Thanks for reading!